Chodosh update from the Guide to Chodosh

[Yoseph Herman]

*CHODOSH BULLETIN-11 JUL 12*

*From the Guide to Chodosh-Y. Herman*

*Chodosh telephone Hot Line 718-305-5133, email *yherman at earthlink.net



PROGRESS OF THE HARVEST OF THE CHODOSH CROPS-UPDATE



The US Department of Agriculture releases their weekly report on crop
progress on Monday of each week. The latest report indicates that the
harvest of oats is just beginning. The harvest of spring wheat and barley
is probable 1-2 weeks off. It is still too early to formulate final working
dates for the effective start  of Chodosh for the upcoming season. I hope
to issue another update in about 1 week.  However, the early fears of
Chodosh starting MUCH earlier than usual, probably will not materialize.



CORRECTION ON THE OATS SITUATION



I had stated on several occasions that according to the crop progress
reports issued by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), about 2 days
before pesach 55% of the oats crop was already planted. Therefore,  if one
holds that crops that took root 2 days before pesach are Yoshon (3 days
before the second day of pesach), then this year oats grown in the US would
be majority Yoshon. However, recently I spoke to a respected mashgiach, who
is more knowledgeable about practices out in the fields than I am.  He
pointed out that these data issued by the USDA have a significant
statistical error margin, possibly more than 5%. Therefore, if the USDA had
indicated that 65% of the crop was planted before pesach, he would have
full confidence that oats would be mostly Yoshon (if you hold the
3-day-before the second day of pesach opinion.) However, 55% is so close to
50%, that it is not at all certain that such a small margin over 50% is
significant. The best one can say is that there is a sofek of being mostly
Yoshon (according to the 3-day opinion.)  This is the revised advice being
offered by the Guide to Chodosh.



SPECIFIC BRANDS OF OATS CEREALS



The O-U had estimated that at least up to a packing date of Sept 15, all
oats cereals made be General Mills, Quaker and Malt-O-Meal use Yoshon oats.





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