Post Pesach Bulletin from the Guide to Chodosh

[Y. Herman]

*POST-PESACH CHODOSH BULLETIN #1*

* 12 May 08*

*From the Guide to Chodosh-Y. Herman*

*Chodosh telephone Hot Line 718-305-5133, email *yherman at earthlink.net 
<mailto:yherman at earthlink.net>**

* *

With pesach behind us we should be in the relaxed time of the year 
regarding Chodosh, when everything is Yoshon until the new Chodosh 
harvest comes in starting in July and August. However this year is 
different. During this normally “off time”, we are focusing on potential 
future problems.

I issued an alert Bulletin in March 08 informing the public that due to 
a crisis in the world wheat markets there may not be any Yoshon flour 
for the bakeries in the forthcoming season starting in Aug 08. This 
current note is an update on this situation. The conclusions thus far 
indicate that BE”H we should have at least a limited supply of Yoshon 
bakery products in the forthcoming season. It is most probable that 
bakeries that will bake Yoshon will have to change their baking 
procedures to make Yoshon. How extensive will our choice be and how many 
bakeries will choose to make Yoshon depends on outcome of the wheat 
harvests that will take place over the next several months, as explained 
in this report. _Please note that here we are addressing mainly the 
production of Yoshon at bakeries and similar establishments that in the 
past used stored Yoshon wheat or flour._

*THE “PROPHETS” OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON YOSHON*

* *

Wheat is a commodity whose price at any time is set by the Commodity 
Markets. Traders on the commodity markets try to guess the world-wide 
balance between supply and demand and set their bidding prices 
accordingly. Late last year, the “prophets” of the wheat commodity 
markets began publishing a new “revelation.” Namely, they came to the 
conclusion that the demand for spring wheat will greatly exceed 
available supply to the point that the current spring wheat supply (that 
would be our Yoshon next season) will disappear much before the new 
harvest comes in. This prophecy was based on them identifying the 
convergence of several factors:

· Poor wheat production this past year in several countries

· Greatly increased standard of living in China and some other formerly 
“underdeveloped” countries leading to an increase in the world-wide 
demand for wheat

· The falling value of the dollar making it easier for these countries 
to purchase wheat

· Increase in agricultural land being diverted from wheat production to 
the growth of grains suitable for agri-fuel substitutes for petrolium.

As a result of such “revelations”, the price of wheat flour became 
unstable in an unprecedented manner. A typical 100 pound bag of spring 
wheat bakery flour has been selling normally for the 
traditionally-stable price of about $20. In January the price zoomed up 
to about $60 per bag. Meanwhile flour distributors had put away Yoshon 
in August 07 and were holding it to deliver at $20. Some of these 
distibutors could not resist the opportunity of great profit and sold 
the Yoshon flour at the high new prices, voiding their Yoshon 
commitments. The bakeries served by one distributor even had signed and 
prepaid contracts on the Yoshon that he was holding. He nevertheless 
renegged on those contracts. (We were gratified to learn that the 
principle Jewish frum distributors of Yoshon in the New York area did 
honor their Yoshon commitments, even without any formal contracts. We 
owe them our gratitude.)

The great explosion in wheat prices, came just at the time when the 
farmers in the spring planting areas were trying to decide which crops 
would be the most profitable to plant. Due to these high wheat prices 
they decided to devote significantly more land to grow spring wheat than 
last year. When the US Dep’t of Agriculture released the revised 
planting estimate for spring wheat, the “prophets” of the commodity 
markets realized that there may be more spring wheat available than they 
feared after all. As a result, by the end of April, the price of the bag 
of flour that went from $20 to $60 was back down to $30, with an 
adequate supply available to all who wanted it.

Now, what about Yoshon for next season? Will there be enough Yoshon 
spring wheat to be able to store as usual, and for a reasonable price? 
Nobody knows. The mills and distributors categorically refuse at this 
time to consider such storage. It is too risky. The price can oscillate 
up or down in unpredictable ways. If they will not put the Yoshon into 
storage, then we will not be able to have Yoshon bakery products 
produced in the usual manner.

What concern them is that the final price of the spring wheat will 
depend on many upredictable factors that will not be known until the new 
harvests are all in. These factors include

· The weather not only in the USA but in other growing areas for wheat, 
the world over

· The quality and yield of the winter wheat crop

· The quality and yield of the spring wheat crop

· Price of the dollar

· General world economic situations (recession, etc)

*WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE YOSHON PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS?*

* *

It is too early and the situation is too unstable to be sure. The 
following time points may be significant

· End of May, when the winter wheat harvest begins. At that time we 
should be able to get a better idea of the amount and the quality of the 
winter wheat that will be available next season.

· Early to mid July when the spring wheat harvest begins. At that time 
we should be able to get a better idea of the amount and the quality of 
the US spring wheat that will be available next season.

· September or October (which is about 2 months after the start of the 
new Chodosh season) when the world-wide wheat picture should be 
clearified and the prices may stabilize.

Since the price is not likely to stabilize until some time after the 
Chodosh season starts, we can not be sure whether the traditional Yoshon 
storage methods will be available or not.

*WHAT OTHER YOSHON OPTIONS DO WE HAVE?*

* *

If Yoshon spring wheat bakery flour will not be available next season, 
will the bakeries be able to continue to supply us with Yoshon? Is there 
an other, thusfar largely unexplored way to produce Yoshon? Many of the 
smaller bakeries have been resigned to producing no Yoshon next year, 
since they were told by their flour suppliers in very certain terms that 
they will not get Yoshon flour next season. However, BS”D the situation 
is not as hopeless as they believe.

*_A possible solution: increase the protein of winter wheat flour. 
_*Winter wheat is always Yoshon. Spring wheat is basically almost all 
Chodosh once the new crop is harvested starting late July or early 
August. The principal reason that spring wheat has been used by the 
bakeries and companies for producing breads, rolls, chalehs, bagels, 
pizza, some cakes (and noodles and pasta) is that the spring wheat has a 
substantially higher _protein_ level than winter wheat (about 11-17% 
protein for spring wheat, versus about 9-13% for the winter wheat.) The 
extra protein makes the bread products chewy as opposed to the crumbly 
consistency of sponge cakes and crackers made from winter wheat. In 
theory, it is possible to increase the protein level of winter wheat 
flour by adding to it concentrated protein that is a wheat flour 
derivative called _vital wheat gluten_. This additive is available also 
from pure winter wheat. The maximum amount of protein enhancement that 
would produce workable results by mixing winter wheat flour with vital 
wheat gluten is not well understood. However, it is clear that the 
higher the starting protein level of the winter wheat, the better are 
our chances of a successful product. We are encouraged by the following 
early indications:

· An expert from a flour mill told us that his experiments show that it 
should be possible to make good chalehs and rolls from protein-enhanced 
winter wheat.

· A major wholesale bakery has done experiments that show that it is 
possible to bake good rye bread by mixing the rye flour with such 
enhanced winter wheat flour instead of the usual spring wheat flour.

· A second wholesale bakery has declared his intention to find ways to 
continue to produce good Yoshon products from winter wheat if necessary.

· A wholesale producer of frozen bagel doughs has done limited 
experiments with using such flour enhancement. He feels confident that 
he can produce bagels from winter wheat only. However, such bagels may 
not be as chewy or dense as the usual bagels.

· Most years, winter wheat is cheaper than spring wheat. If such 
experiments, which are forced on the bakeries who wish to continue to 
produce Yoshon are successful, then it may also turn out that it is 
cheaper to produce such baked products on a regular basis just to save 
money. In that case the feared misfortune of not having Yoshon for next 
season may generate an ongoing solution for the future of producing 
Yoshon that is cheaper than the usual Chodosh and does not call for the 
use of stored flour or stored wheat.

* *

*WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR YOSHON NEXT SEASON?*

Of course nobody knows what will happen to Yoshon next season for the 
reasons we explained above. The concensus is that probably _Chodosh will 
start several weeks earlier than in previous years_ due to the fact very 
little stored crop is available. Therefore, the new crop will be used as 
soon as the Chodosh harvest begins.

However, regarding the more general questions raised above, from all 
possible outcomes we would like to outline 3 possible scenarios:

1. *_A “worst case” scenario_*: One possibility is that the new winter 
wheat crop is very poor and the spring wheat crop is very good and 
plentiful, thereby fairly inexpensive. In that case, most bakeries would 
probably use Chodosh spring wheat to bake products of the usual high 
quality for the majority of the kosher customers who are not /makpid /on 
Chodosh. A few bakeries will continue to make Yoshon products that may 
differ in quality or texture from the usual items that would now only be 
available as Chodosh.

2. *_An intermediate scenario:_*_ _ Suppose both the winter wheat and 
spring wheat are of good quality. Some bakeries would improvise new 
techniques to produce Yoshon products that are the same in quality as 
the items normally made from spring wheat. However, many bakeries would 
still choose to produce only Chodosh from spring wheat, as usual. They 
would be reluctant to invest the time and effort to learn the new baking 
procedures needed to make good products from winter wheat flour.__

3. *_A “best” scenario: _*Perhaps a “best” outcome would be if the 
winter wheat is of good quality and is plentiful, while the spring wheat 
is significantly more expensive than winter wheat. In this case, the 
bakeries would have a financial incentive to learn new production 
methods, to allow them to use winter wheat to make good quality products 
at a lower cost. _Those products would also be Yoshon_. I call this last 
scenario “best”, because normally winter wheat is cheaper than spring 
wheat. Once the bakeries are retrained to switch from spring wheat flour 
to winter wheat (Yoshon) flour, then in the future we could have 
unlimited Yoshon without the need to store large amounts of spring wheat 
flour.*_ _*_ _

_ _

_ _

I hope to issue an update on this issue in early June when the winter 
wheat harvest is on the way and in mid July when the spring wheat 
harvest has started.

_ _

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